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200908Mysterious ProfitBurnsideA. Craig

August 2009

Mysterious Profit200908BurnsideA. Craig

Mysterious Profit
The carry trade is an enigma in the financial world. When experts attempt to explain its continued profitability using traditional risk factors such as consumption growth, stock market returns, and other more complex predictors, they fail miserably. Sergio Rebelo and his colleagues discovered a tantalizing new way to minimize the risk posed by the unpredictable.

BurnsideA. Craig200908Mysterious Profit

A. Craig Burnside

Martin Eichenbaum

Isaac Kleshchelski

Sergio Rebelo

200704A Dollar ShortBursteinAriel

April 2007

A Dollar Short200704BursteinAriel

A Dollar Short
It happened in one country after another during the 1990s: a large, contractionary currency devaluation followed by surprisingly mild rates of inflation. But when Kellogg School Finance Professor Sergio Rebelo and his co-researchers looked closely at the aftermath of the devaluations, they observed a remarkably similar set of economic reactions. Whether in Finland, Sweden, Mexico, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia or Brazil, the same patterns in pricing emerged. In each country, the prices that changed most were those of imports and exports at the dock. The prices of these goods in retail stores were more stable, Rebelo's team found.

BursteinAriel200704A Dollar Short

Ariel Burstein

Craig Burnside

Martin Eichenbaum

Sergio Rebelo

João C. Neves