Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Harry Kraemer

Thu, Nov 24

I Am “Those Guys”

In the aftermath of an extremely divisive presidential campaign and post-election protests across the U.S., many people are wondering how our country can move forward amid such political polarity. There are grave concerns that neither side understands the other, and... More →

Cheap Talk

Mon, Nov 21

Failure Of Big Data

The poll aggregators were wildly off as they gave Hillary Clinton an over 90% chance of winning. Nate Silver was the most pessimistic because of his theory of correlated forecasting errors: State outcomes are highly correlated with one another, so polling errors... More →

Cheap Talk

Thu, Nov 10

Trumprediction: ISIS

I was discussing some forecasts of what might befall under a Trump Presidency with a friend. He was skeptical of one of them but it turns out Henry Kissinger agrees with me: JG: So there is some chance of more... More →

Cheap Talk

Sat, Nov 5

Forecaster Horse Race

How do you assess whether a probabilistic forecast was successful?  Put aside the question of sequential forecasts updated over time.  That’s a puzzle in itself but on Monday night each forecaster will have its final probability estimate and there remains... More →