Policy & the Economy
February 17, 2025
Trump’s Trade War Is about More Than Trade
Winning its trade war with China would help the U.S. negotiate better trade terms, but American consumers and businesses could pay a heavy price.
Nancy Qian
January 13, 2025
The Cold, Cold History of Political Conflict
Sustained temperature shifts during the “Little Ice Age” led to wars, mass migration, and instability. What does this mean for our current moment?
Murat Iyigun, Joris Mueller and Nancy Qian
January 7, 2025
China’s Economy Has Not Peaked
Chinese policymakers should allow for a more market-driven allocation of land, money, and labor.
Nancy Qian
December 3, 2024
Overnight Success? AI Has Been a Century in the Making.
For clues about the future of AI, it helps to understand the past.
Sergio Rebelo
September 24, 2024
When the Minimum Wage Rises, Do Men and Women Benefit Equally?
The policy is gender-neutral. The impact, less so.
Decio Coviello, Erika Deserranno and Nicola Persico
September 1, 2024
Why Do Prices Rise Like Rockets … but Fall Like Feathers?
Behavioral psychology sheds light on a longstanding economic puzzle.
Sergio Rebelo, Pedro Teles and Miguel Santana
August 12, 2024
Would Trump Escalate the U.S.–China Trade War?
If former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House, he would likely impose sweeping tariffs against China. His policy agenda would harm lower-income households the most.
Nancy Qian
August 8, 2024
5 Trends in a Volatile Global Economy
“We live in an interesting world, one with much upside as well as significant downside.”
Sergio Rebelo
July 30, 2024
Take 5: Work Is Changing. What Does the Future Hold?
Remote work, technology, and climate change are all set to transform the labor market. Here’s how.
Dimitris Papanikolaou, Bryan Seegmiller, Hyejin Youn, Sergio Rebelo, Jacopo Ponticelli, Hatim Rahman and and coauthors
June 17, 2024
Will America’s Economy Soon Look Like … Italy’s?
Why one Kellogg economist is worried that the U.S. is headed toward a low-growth future.
Nicola Persico
April 12, 2024
Humanizing the U.S.–China Relationship
Escalating tensions between U.S. and Chinese governments make preserving in-person interactions between ordinary Chinese and Americans even more important.
Nancy Qian
March 5, 2024
When New Technology Arrives, Who Wins and Who Loses?
For tools that assist but don’t replace workers, novices benefit, while experienced employees take a hit.
Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence Schmidt and Bryan Seegmiller
March 1, 2024
How to Award Contracts When You’re Concerned about Quality
You want a good price, but you don’t want lousy workmanship. What’s a buyer to do?
Giuseppe Lopomo, Nicola Persico and Alessandro T. Villa
February 1, 2024
How the Railroad Laid the Tracks for Modern Government
Technologies that allowed federal officials to monitor workers from afar played a key role in the emergence of the bureaucratic state.
Nicola Mastrorocco and Edoardo Teso
January 4, 2024
Why Are So Many Young Chinese Depressed?
It’s not just the economic slowdown. The country’s education system and social policies have created a disillusioned generation.
Nancy Qian
December 11, 2023
Investing Over-the-Counter—and Under the Radar
In most markets, buyers and sellers benefit from soliciting many offers. New research shows why the opposite is true for OTC traders.
Markus Baldauf and Joshua Mollner
November 28, 2023
The Long Tail of China’s Zero-Covid Policy
As the costs of China’s pandemic experience are tallied, younger generations are confronting a disconcerting new reality.
Nancy Qian
October 18, 2023
Why Younger Workers Just Can’t Get Ahead
In wealthy countries, the wage gap between older and younger workers is growing. A crowded promotion pathway could be to blame.
Nicola Bianchi and Matteo Paradisi
October 2, 2023
Is Chinese Youth Unemployment as Bad as It Looks?
China’s exceptional growth in recent decades has influenced the education and career choices of young people and their families. But now that high-skilled jobs are drying up and recent graduates are struggling to find work, there is a growing mismatch between expectations and new realities.
Nancy Qian
September 1, 2023
Why Do Long Wars Happen?
War is a highly inefficient way of dividing contested resources—yet conflicts endure when there are powerful incentives to feign strength.
Sandeep Baliga and Tomas Sjöström
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