Policy & the Economy

July 27, 2023
Youth Unemployment and China’s Economic Future
For decades, China’s growth has followed the pattern of advanced economies, with rising incomes and educational attainment, shrinking family size, and growing female labor-force participation. But across these and other dimensions, the economy now appears to be going backward.
Nancy Qian

June 2, 2023
China’s Youth Unemployment Problem
If the record-breaking joblessness persists, as seems likely, China will have an even harder time supporting its rapidly aging population.
Nancy Qian

May 16, 2023
Take 5: Yikes! When Unintended Consequences Strike
Good intentions don’t always mean good results. Here’s why humility, and a lot of monitoring, are so important when making big changes.
Sunil Chopra, Jacopo Ponticelli, Anna Tuchman, Erika Deserranno and Jörg L. Spenkuch

May 1, 2023
2 Factors Will Determine How Much AI Transforms Our Economy
They’ll also dictate how workers stand to fare.
Benjamin F. Jones

April 1, 2023
How Marriages Are Exacerbating Income Inequality
Marriage patterns can account for 40 percent of rising inequality, according to a new study.
Almar Frederik, Benjamin Friedrich, Ana Reynoso, Bastian Schulz and Rune Vejlin

January 25, 2023
6 Takeaways on Inflation and the Economy Right Now
Are we headed into a recession? Kellogg’s Sergio Rebelo breaks down the latest trends.
Sergio Rebelo

December 23, 2022
Podcast: China’s Economy Is in Flux. Here’s What American Businesses Need to Know.
On this episode of The Insightful Leader: the end of “Zero Covid,” escalating geopolitical tensions, and China’s potentially irreplaceable role in the global supply chain.
Nancy Qian, Benjamin F. Jones and David Dollar

December 22, 2022
What Do American Businesses Need to Understand about China Right Now?
As China’s zero-Covid policy ends, it’s time to take stock of where the world’s second largest economy may be headed.
Nancy Qian, Benjamin F. Jones and David Dollar

December 6, 2022
Which Workers Suffer Most When New Technology Arrives?
It’s not necessarily who you think.
Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence Schmidt and Bryan Seegmiller

December 1, 2022
What Happens to Worker Productivity after a Minimum Wage Increase?
A pay raise boosts productivity for some—but the impact on the bottom line is more complicated.
Decio Coviello, Erika Deserranno and Nicola Persico

December 1, 2022
How COVID Changed the Way Americans Think about Economic Inequality
For some, the pandemic laid bare the social factors that can keep people down. But not everyone adopted a new perspective.
Hannah J. Birnbaum, Andrea G. Dittmann, Nicole Stephens, Ellen C. Reinhart, Rebecca M. Carey and Hazel Rose Markus

November 28, 2022
Post-War Reconstruction Is a Good Investment
Ukraine’s European neighbors will need to make a major financial commitment to help rebuild its economy after the war. Fortunately, as the legacy of the post–World War II Marshall Plan shows, investing in Ukraine’s future will also serve Europe’s own long-term interests.
Nancy Qian

November 1, 2022
How Experts Make Complex Decisions
By studying 200 million chess moves, researchers shed light on what gives players an advantage—and what trips them up.
Yuval Salant and Jörg L. Spenkuch

October 1, 2022
Why Did So Many Ukrainians Die in the Soviet Great Famine?
They perished at a much higher rate than ethnic Russians during what’s known as Holodomor. A new study suggests this was a deliberate policy decision.
Andrei Markevich, Natalya Naumenko and Nancy Qian

September 28, 2022
China’s Future Will Reflect Russia’s
China learned from Russia’s post-1991 experience and pursued its economic liberalization with more care. But it ultimately could not avoid the political implications of pro-market policies and is now following Russia down the road to autocracy—continuing a century-long pattern of mirroring its neighbor’s historical trajectory.
Nancy Qian

August 26, 2022
The Food Crisis Is Bigger Than Ukraine
While Russia’s war has undoubtedly caused real problems in global food markets, they are different and more complex than what most news coverage suggests.
Nancy Qian

August 1, 2022
For Those Living in Poverty, Therapy Can Have Benefits Beyond Mental Health
A large study suggests that cognitive behavioral therapy can also improve physical health and economic outcomes.
Nathan Baker, Bryan T. Gharad, Dean Karlan, Angela L. Ofori-Atta and Christopher Udry

July 5, 2022
Where Does Capitalism Go Next?
A conversation on “creative destruction,” growth, and designing a more equitable capitalist future.
Benjamin F. Jones and Philippe Aghion

June 3, 2022
Did China’s One-Child Policy Prompt Households to Save More?
Researchers investigate whether the lack of a “family safety net” is responsible for China’s singularly high household savings rate.
Scott R. Baker, Efraim Benmelech, Zhishu Yang and Qi Jacky Zhang

June 1, 2022
How Local Disruptions Can Affect the Global Supply Chain
A new study of the Kenyan flower industry can help buyers and suppliers prepare for uncertainty.
Christopher Ksoll, Rocco Macchiavello and Ameet Morjaria
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