Policy & the Economy
March 26, 2020
Containing COVID-19 Will Devastate the Economy. Here’s the Economic Case for Why It’s Still Our Best Option.
The death toll from failing to contain the virus will be far more costly to society.
Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt
March 24, 2020
Take 5: What Previous Recessions Can Teach Us about the Coronavirus Crisis
From stimulus strategies to how businesses will fare, research on past downturns can help inform our outlook today.
Ravi Jagannathan, Filippo Mezzanotti, Sara Moreira, Jacopo Ponticelli and Scott R. Baker
March 2, 2020
When Do Open Borders Make Economic Sense?
A new study provides a window into the logic behind various immigration policies.
João Guerreiro, Sergio Rebelo and Pedro Teles
January 2, 2020
Predicting Exchange Rates Is Hard. Could Dusting Off an Old Technique Help?
Investors take note: the “real exchange rate” may be a more accurate long-term forecaster than economists thought.
Martin Eichenbaum, Benjamin Johannsen and Sergio Rebelo
December 2, 2019
Two Ways the Economy Could Have Recovered Faster after the Great Recession
Doubling down on these monetary policies could help combat future financial crises.
Janice C. Eberly, James Stock and Jonathan Wright
December 2, 2019
What’s Causing Wage Stagnation in America?
Previous explanations pointed to globalization and automation. But research shows that employer concentration is also to blame.
Efraim Benmelech, Nittai K. Bergman and Hyunseob Kim
November 1, 2019
How Dodd-Frank Made Commercial Mortgage Loans Safer
The financial reform bill increased the cost of certain loans, but lowered the risk of default.
Craig Furfine
November 1, 2019
India’s Economy Is Slowing Down. What Happens Next?
The country’s chief economic advisor discusses how labor, trade, and energy factor into the country’s economic outlook.
Benjamin F. Jones and Krishnamurthy Subramanian
November 1, 2019
How Raising the Sales Tax Could Help Fight a Recession
New research points to a counterintuitive new tool to spur spending.
Lorenz Kueng, Scott R. Baker, Brian Melzer and Leslie McGranahan
October 4, 2019
Companies Are Shifting Investment Away from Physical Capital, with Far-Reaching Consequences
Buildings and machinery are out. Software, IP, and research are in. Here’s why it matters.
Nicolas Crouzet and Janice C. Eberly
October 3, 2019
No, Extended Warranties Are Usually Not Worth It
So why do so many people keep buying them?
Jose Miguel Abito and Yuval Salant
September 3, 2019
Daughters’ Math Scores Suffer When They Grow Up in a Family That’s Biased Towards Sons
Parents, your children are taking their cues about gender roles from you.
Gaia Dossi, David Figlio, Paola Giuliano and Paola Sapienza
September 3, 2019
Some High-Frequency Trading Strategies Can Damage the Stock Market’s Health
But a small tweak to how trading orders are processed could help.
Markus Baldauf and Joshua Mollner
August 14, 2019
The Business Case for Comprehensive Immigration Reform
Two economists propose a bipartisan immigration overhaul, with an eye towards the future of the labor force.
Benjamin Harris and Douglas Holtz-Eakin
August 1, 2019
China Weathered the Global Recession with an Aggressive Stimulus Package. But Did It Prop Up the Wrong Firms?
A cautionary tale about the unintended consequences of credit expansion.
Lin William Cong, Haoyu Gao, Jacopo Ponticelli and Xiaoguang Yang
July 1, 2019
Should Antitrust Laws Really Be Changed, or Should We Just Enforce the Laws We Have?
A presidential assassination brought the trust-busting Teddy Roosevelt to power. The episode offers lessons for today’s antitrust regulators.
Richard Baker, Carola Frydman and Eric Hilt
June 3, 2019
A Nation’s Wealth May Depend on How Much Its Workers Can Learn on the Job
New research suggests that formal schooling is not the panacea to global inequality that many have long believed it to be.
David Lagakos, Benjamin Moll, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian and Todd Schoellman
June 3, 2019
One Nation Invades Another. What Will Happen Next?
Game theory reveals why some conflicts escalate and others don’t.
Sandeep Baliga and Tomas Sjöström
June 3, 2019
What Causes Stock Market Swings?
Tariffs? Job reports? Oil prices? A new volatility index pinpoints which factors make investors feel uncertain.
Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Kyle Kost
May 2, 2019
A Comprehensive Model for Building Winning Stock Portfolios
Linking fundamental analysis and portfolio optimization may be the key to solving the “investor’s problem.”
Matthew R. Lyle and Teri L. Yohn
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